NBA
NBA 2026 playoffs
Saved May 17, 9:08 PM MT
Title odds
The tick marks 12.5%, an equal share for 8 teams.
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 64.69% | 74.8% | -183 | Lost the West finals | |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 20.15% | 25.2% | +396 | Lost the Finals | |
| 3 | New York Knicks | 11.60% | 67.7% | +762 | Champion | |
| 4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.87% | 32.3% | +3384 | Lost the East finals | |
| 5 | Detroit Pistons | 0.69% | 0.0% | +14393 | Lost in the semifinals | |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 0.00% | 0.0% | — | Lost in the semifinals | |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 0.00% | 0.0% | — | Lost in the semifinals | |
| 8 | Philadelphia 76ers | 0.00% | 0.0% | — | Lost in the semifinals |
The Knicks won the 2026 title; our last saved run had Oklahoma City at 64.7%. Both missed: Oklahoma City led the run and San Antonio was favored in the Finals. Season report card
Finals matchups
- New York KnicksvsOklahoma City Thunder50.6%
- Cleveland CavaliersvsOklahoma City Thunder24.2%
- New York KnicksvsSan Antonio Spurs17.1%
- Cleveland CavaliersvsSan Antonio Spurs8.1%
Bracket
Winner, score, and the winner’s chance before the series.
First round
- Detroit Pistons over Orlando Magic4-391%
- Cleveland Cavaliers over Toronto Raptors4-372%
- Philadelphia 76ers over Boston Celtics4-37%
- Los Angeles Lakers over Houston Rockets4-236%
- New York Knicks over Atlanta Hawks4-280%
- Minnesota Timberwolves over Denver Nuggets4-222%
- San Antonio Spurs over Portland Trail Blazers4-196%
- Oklahoma City Thunder over Phoenix Suns4-097%
Conference semifinals
- New York Knicks over Philadelphia 76ers4-093%
- Cleveland Cavaliers over Detroit Pistons4-313%
- Oklahoma City Thunder over Los Angeles Lakers4-095%
- San Antonio Spurs over Minnesota Timberwolves4-287%
How it finished
- East finalsNew York Knicks over Cleveland Cavaliers4-0
- West finalsSan Antonio Spurs over Oklahoma City Thunder4-3
- NBA FinalsNew York Knicks over San Antonio Spurs4-1
How this works
The Knicks won their first title since 1973, beating the Spurs 4-1; Jalen Brunson was Finals MVP.
The title odds are the share of simulated postseasons each team won, from the last full-bracket run on file. It was saved with the conference semifinals decided and the conference finals not yet started, so the first round and semifinals rows are results, and the three series under “How it finished” were played after it. The model did not see them. Four teams were already out, so their reach-Finals chance is zero; Detroit’s small title share is left as it was saved. Title probabilities sum to one across the field.
Each team carries two Elo ratings, one fit on the regular season and one on playoff games only, blended for postseason matchups. Within a series the model tracks the current state (down 0-1, leading 2-1) because trailing teams play differently. Injury news shifts ratings live. The bracket runs thousands of times and the probabilities are the empirical rates.
The bias correction was tuned against the 2024 and 2025 playoffs: 166 backfilled games, calibrated so the model’s claimed probabilities matched realized rates inside two percentage points on a holdout window.