About
Site map
50 pages, grouped like the menus. Out-of-season sports are marked.
NFL
Games & projections
- Game projectionsThe model's line on every NFL game this week, next to the betting line.
- Super Bowl oddsEach team's chance to win the title, from the season simulation.
- Win totalsOur season win total for all 32 teams against the betting line, frozen Aug 28.
- Totals as a rangeThe likely range of combined points in each game.
Teams
Players
- QuarterbacksEvery starting quarterback, rated two ways. Updated daily.
- QB trajectoriesEvery quarterback since 1999, game by game, and where each one stands right now.
- MVP watchThe betting market's MVP shortlist, re-ranked by our QB rating.
- Live QB EPAQuarterback play graded snap by snap. Live during games only.
- Running backsRunning backs ranked on the stats that hold up from year to year.
- Wide receiversReceivers rated on what they do per target, not how often they are targeted.
- Tight endsTight ends rated on efficiency rather than box-score totals.
College football
Games & projections
Ratings
- Ratings & playoffRatings for every FBS team, and the projected 12-team playoff field.
- Team filesOne team at a time: rating, win distribution and every game.
- College QB ratingCollege quarterbacks rated with the strength of the defenses they faced.
- Running backsCollege running backs rated on carries, share of the rushing and the defenses faced.
- Wide receiversCollege receivers rated on yards per team pass play, adjusted for the defenses faced.
- Tight endsCollege tight ends rated on yards per team pass play, adjusted for the defenses faced.
NBAstarts in 14 days
Games & projections
College baseballoffseason
- SLIDER ratingsRatings for every Division I team, final for 2026.
- Field of 64The 2026 tournament field: who was in and who hosted.
- CWS oddsEach team's chance to win the 2026 College World Series, kept as the record.
- CWS trackerThe 2026 bracket as frozen on Selection Monday, with every result.
- CWS gamesEvery 2026 Omaha game with our line and the betting line.
This week and analysis
Record
- The recordEvery sport, both records.
- McConnell's CallsThe weekly football picks, frozen before kickoff and graded in public.
- CalibrationWhen a model says 65%, how often it actually happens, model by model.
- Model vs the closing lineThe NFL model's line against the final betting line, every game.
- Watching listPatterns we are tracking that are not ready to be picks.
About
- MethodologyHow each model works, one page per model.
- What the numbers meanPlain definitions of every number on the site.
- Model logChanges to the models and the site, posted when they ship.
- Open dataEach week's college football and NFL projections as a CSV, frozen before kickoff.
- AboutWhat The Margin is and who runs it.
Methodology
- NBA projectionsHow the NBA season and game projections are made.
- NFL game modelHow the NFL game projections are made.
- Totals as a rangeWhy game totals are shown as a range and not a pick.
- NFL position ratingsThe NFL team composite built from position ratings.
- SLIDER (college baseball)How the college baseball ratings work.
- CWS champion filterThe checklist past College World Series champions have met.