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NFLGame projections Super Bowl odds Win totals Totals as a range Team ratings Team files Team comps Quarterbacks QB trajectories MVP watch Live QB EPA Running backs Wide receivers Tight ends

NFL

NFL MVP watch

The market’s shortlist, re-ordered by the model’s score.

Not a probability or a call.

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How this works

The NFL game model

Track record

The record: Model and Calls

Related analysis

All analysis

Model projections for football and other sports, next to the betting line, with every pick and its result published.

NFL

Game projections
Super Bowl odds
Win totals
Totals as a range
Team ratings
Team files
Team comps
Quarterbacks
QB trajectories
MVP watch
Live QB EPA
Running backs
Wide receivers
Tight ends

College football

Game projections
What to watch
Totals as a range
Ratings & playoff
Team files
College QB rating
Running backs
Wide receivers
Tight ends

NBA

Game projections
Season projections
Team files
Player projections

More

This Week
Analysis
College baseball

Record

The record
McConnell's Calls
Calibration
Model vs the closing line
Watching list

About

Methodology
What the numbers mean
Model log
Open data
Site map
About

Methodology

NBA projections
NFL game model
Totals as a range
NFL position ratings
SLIDER (college baseball)
CWS champion filter

© 2026 The Margin, McConnell Digital. All projections are published for information only; nothing here is betting advice.

College baseball team ratings from PEAR Ratings. Projected fields from D1Baseball and Baseball America. NFL play-by-play from nflverse. College football data from CollegeFootballData. NBA team and player stats from NBA.com. Betting lines from DraftKings and ESPN. Prediction market prices on game pages from Kalshi. Weather forecasts from Open-Meteo, using the ECMWF and GFS ensembles.