Record
The record
Model vs the Vegas close, per sport, through the latest graded week.
| NFL | … | … | … | … | … |
| College football | … | … | … | … | … |
Lower miss is better. Vegas is the closing line on the same games.
How we count
- Average miss
- On every finished game, how far the model's predicted margin landed from the final margin, in points, averaged. The Vegas closing spread is graded the same way on the same games as the benchmark. Lower is better; the closing line is the sharpest public number there is, so getting within a point of it is the goal.
- Straight up
- Did the team the model favored win? Every finished game, graded on the model's number from before kickoff.
- Against the spread
- On every game, the side the model's own line likes better than the Vegas closing spread, graded against that spread. A coin flip gets about 50%; you need about 52.4% to beat the sportsbook's cut.
- Totals
- On every game on the totals board, over or under the market total, whichever the model's number favors, graded against that total.
- McConnell's Calls
- Only the picks published as McConnell's Calls, graded at the posted price, a flat stake. Units are profit at that stake.
The ATS record grades the model's own line, set before kickoff, against the closing spread on every game it had a line for. A leans-only tally (games where the model sat 1.5 to 3 points off the line) is a third, smaller sample and is not shown here.
McConnell's Calls
Published picks only, graded at the posted price, 1 unit each. Not an edge claim.
Loading the calls…
Other sports
No other-sport picks are open. NBA returns Oct 20; MLB and college baseball are paused.
Notes
Nobody reliably beats the closing line; the aim is to get as near it as we can. The NFL model does not beat the betting market.