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The Margin

NFL

NFL team ratings

All 32 teams. Switch views for offense and defense, form, situations and the season outlook.
NFLLoading the record…
Rating
The team without its quarterback, plus what the starting quarterback is worth. The number the game model predicts with.
Team w/o QB
The team without its quarterback. An average team is about 1505.
QB value
What the starting quarterback is worth, in points against an average starter.

Game projections

Notes

The rating updates after each week’s games. Click a team for its file: season outlook, offense and defense, and its games.

The model’s game lines come from these ratings. Against the closing line the model has not beaten the market, so the site shows NFL projections for comparison and does not recommend bets on them.

The Super Bowl odds on /nfl come from a separate season simulation, blended toward the betting market.

How the preseason rating was built