NFL
NFL Super Bowl odds
How this works
- Super Bowl odds
- The model's season simulation, blended toward the betting market.
- Model only
- The same simulation before it is blended with the betting market.
- Market
- The sportsbook's price as a probability, with the house edge taken out.
- Gap
- Super Bowl odds minus market, in percentage points. Positive: the model likes the team more than the market does.
- Share of seasons
- How often that exact pairing reached the Super Bowl in the simulation.
- Playoffs
- Share of simulated seasons the team makes the playoffs.
- This seed
- Share of simulated seasons the team ends up with exactly that seed. Each team's seed is assigned to maximise these chances across the field.
- Avg seed
- Average seed in the seasons it gets in.
- Reach Div to Win SB
- Chance to reach the divisional round (a bye counts), the conference title game and the Super Bowl, and to win it. These are the simulation alone, before the market blend, so Win SB can differ from the Super Bowl odds above.
Every number on this page, and the win totals, comes from one simulation: 50,000 seasons that play out the rest of the schedule and the playoffs. Each simulated season draws its own strength for every team, so a team’s rating is treated as uncertain, not fixed. Where the simulation and the sportsbook disagree by more than two percentage points, the headline Super Bowl odds are pulled toward the sportsbook; the Model only column shows the number before that.
The projected bracket takes the most likely field from those seasons and plays it out once, with the favorite advancing in every game. Each game’s win chance is the model’s own, with the rating uncertainty averaged in. It is one path, not a forecast of the single most likely outcome: the odds above are the full picture.
The simulation’s ratings are the preseason roster build, moved by each week’s results. They are close to, but not the same as, the NFL team ratings, and they carry no injury or trade news.