NBA projections

Summary

Our own power ratings, built from the players on each roster, turned into a line for every game and a projected win total for every team.

What we publish

For each of the 30 teams, the season projections give expected wins, the likely range, and the chance of reaching the playoffs. For each game today and tomorrow, the game projections give our line, a win chance for each side, and a range for the margin and the total, next to the betting line.

Earlier snapshots and last season

Every daily run is kept. The “As of” menu on the season projections and team pages shows the board as it stood on an earlier day, starting 29 September 2026; the game board has a day menu from opening night, with the final scores. “Last season” is different in kind: it is a retro projection. We made it in 2026, running the model on only what was known before the 2025-26 season, so it was not a forecast we published at the time.

Players and rosters

Every player gets an impact rating: the points per 100 possessions he adds to his team’s margin compared with an average player. It is estimated from past box scores and aged forward. Players with no NBA history get an estimate from their draft slot instead. Each team’s strength is its players’ impact weighted by the minutes we expect them to play. The player projections are a work in progress: we’re still improving how new signings, rookies and injured players are handled.

From strength to a game

A game’s predicted margin is the difference in the two teams’ strength, plus home court, plus a small adjustment for rest, travel and altitude. NBA margins vary a lot, so the game page shows the middle 80% of outcomes for the margin and for the total points. The win chance comes from the same distribution.

From games to a season

To project a season we play the full 82-game schedule 10,000 times, using the NBA’s tiebreakers and the play-in tournament. Expected wins is the average of those seasons, the range is the middle 80%, and the playoff chance is the share of seasons in which the team reaches the 16-team field.

When the numbers update

The season projections are rebuilt every morning. Game forecasts are made each morning for that day and the next. About 30 minutes before each tip we make the game’s forecast again after reading the injury report, and the page says which one you are looking at. Betting lines and win totals are captured through the day and shown as last captured.

What we do not publish

For 2026-27 we do not publish playoff-series or championship odds, and we do not project preseason games. The 2025-26 playoff and title model is archived at /nba/2026-playoffs; it is not run this season.