CWS bracket tracker

Rating engine

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How this works

PEAR Ratings uses PEARatings.com’s published team ratings; SLIDER is our in-house rating. Win probabilities are ours, not PEARatings’. Per-game model % differs from series odds because the model redistributes each team’s rating across the series.

How the numbers are produced. A 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo of the NCAA tournament under the PEAR Ratings rating engine. Each sim plays out 16 regionals (double-elimination), 8 super-regionals (best-of-3), then the Omaha 8-team double-elim + best-of-3 final. Win-CWS is the fraction of sims a team holds up the trophy.

Margin of error. 50,000 sims gives ±0.4pp 95% CI on every champion probability. Anything below 0.5% is cosmetic, we render “—” rather than publishing noise. The bootstrap CIs shown on top-of-field teams are per-1k-sim blocks.

Known biases. Our rating likely over-weights SEC and ACC conference quality, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, and Alabama may be inflated; Oregon State and Oregon are probably undervalued. Pitcher matchups are not modeled, which means real-world upset rates are likely a floor, not a ceiling.

What the shading means. Row background is a 6-step gradient keyed to win-regional probability, darker means more likely to escape. Once games start, eliminated teams get a strikethrough overlay; the eventual champion gets a solid frame.

Win-Reg is the Monte Carlo probability the team wins its regional, updated as completed games are folded back into the simulation. Win-CWS is the probability it wins the College World Series. DK is the DraftKings implied probability at field freeze. Faded with strikethrough means eliminated, a solid frame means national champion.