Archive: 2026 season. Oklahoma won. This is the model's pre-tournament forecast, 50,000 simulations.
College baseball: Field of 64, CWS odds, Games, Bracket tracker, Ratings
CWS odds
Projected bracket walk
Upset watch
Pitching edge
Injury report
How this works
A 50,000-bracket Monte Carlo on the NCAA field. Team ratings powered by PEAR Ratings. Pick a field source and the whole page re-simulates against it.
Bracket walk: the model's most-likely path, built from the same simulations. Each round's pick is the modal winner among the sims where every prior round's modal pick also occurred, so the percentage reads as the share of sims in which the team advances from that round, given the walk to date. Bullpen depletion carries between rounds (alpha 0.35 between rounds, 0.75 before the best-of-3 final). The walk's champion can differ from the team with the highest title probability.
Upset watch: regionals where the 1-seed is barely a favorite or a lower seed clears the 25% upset threshold, sorted by upset weight. Bubble: D1Baseball's read on the at-large bubble.
Pitching edge: starter rotation strength for the contenders. ERAs of 3.00 or lower and 4.50 or higher are marked. D1B probable is the official D1Baseball weekend probable; Estimated is inferred from this season's appearance log.
Injury report: each entry is a rating-point adjustment; one point is worth roughly nine percentage points of single-game win probability.
The model
Per-game logit fit on 72,809 D1-D1 games (2014 to 2024) plus the current PEAR Ratings. K_DIFF = 0.37 on rating diff (CI [0.364, 0.379]). HFA_LOGIT = 0.23, ~6% home boost (CI [0.217, 0.249]). Per-game Gaussian rating noise σ ≈ 2.0 captures starter-day variance. Fatigue penalty 0.40 rating pts per cumulative game in a regional or super series.
Bracket structure
16 regionals of 4 teams each (double elimination), then 8 super regionals (best-of-3), then 8 teams in Omaha split into two 4-team double-elims, then a best-of-3 final. Host bonus has been fit to zero in the current era. It's fully captured by home-field advantage on neutral-vs-host games.
Field of 64
We pull weekly projections from D1Baseball and Baseball America, plus our own auto-projection from PEAR Ratings, then blend them into a consensus field (3-of-3 teams first, then 2-of-3 by rating, then 1-of-3 to fill 64). Selection day was Monday, May 25, 2026; after that the projections were replaced with the actual NCAA bracket, which is what the 2026 record above reflects.