College football

What to watch

Kickoffs by window.

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How this works

How the models work

Track record

The record: Model and Calls

Related analysis

All analysis

The Margin

Model projections for football and other sports, next to the betting line, with every pick and its result published.

NFL

Game projections
Super Bowl odds
Win totals
Totals as a range
Team ratings
Team files
Team comps
Quarterbacks
QB trajectories
MVP watch
Live QB EPA
Running backs
Wide receivers
Tight ends

College football

Game projections
What to watch
Totals as a range
Ratings & playoff
Team files
College QB rating
Running backs
Wide receivers
Tight ends

NBA

Game projections
Season projections
Team files
Player projections

More

This Week
Analysis
College baseball

Record

The record
McConnell's Calls
Calibration
Model vs the closing line
Watching list

About

Methodology
What the numbers mean
Model log
Open data
Site map
About

Methodology

NBA projections
NFL game model
Totals as a range
NFL position ratings
SLIDER (college baseball)
CWS champion filter

College baseball team ratings from PEAR Ratings. Projected fields from D1Baseball and Baseball America. NFL play-by-play from nflverse. College football data from CollegeFootballData. NBA team and player stats from NBA.com. Betting lines from DraftKings and ESPN. Prediction market prices on game pages from Kalshi. Weather forecasts from Open-Meteo, using the ECMWF and GFS ensembles.